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Iron ore bear market has arrived, steel trade tray company has a burst
According to reports, on April 18, the main contract of iron ore futures suffered a sell-off at the end of 1709, once fell by nearly 7%, closing down 6.49%, quoted at 468 yuan / ton, has continued to fall 32% from the February high. In general, a 20% drop from the high level is considered a technical bear market. At the same time that iron ore spot and futures fell, the steel trade industry also suffered a significant impact. A person in charge of the futures department of a steel company in Tangshan revealed: "The steel trade has been greatly affected by the situation. Some steel trade tray companies have even exploded. Some state-owned enterprises have just completed the deposit, and they have exploded in the past two days.
In the capital market, if prices continue to fall, panic selling, and shorts dominate the bulls, it is often called a bear market. At present, iron ore seems to be at this stage. On April 18, the main contract of iron ore futures suffered a sell-off at the end of 1709, once fell by nearly 7%, closing down 6.49%, quoted at 468 yuan / ton, has continued to fall 32% from the February high. In general, a 20% drop from the high level is considered a technical bear market.
One glory and one glory, the black-related rebar, coking coal, and coke generally continued to decline. At the same time that the spot and futures fell, the steel trade industry also suffered a significant impact. A person in charge of the futures office of a steel company in Tangshan told reporters: "The steel trade has also been greatly affected. Some steel trade pallet companies have even exploded, and some state-owned enterprises have just completed the deposit, and they have exploded in the past two days."
In the steel trade chain, the “national enterprise pallet” model is very common. In short, it is the traders who are looking for capital-rich state-owned enterprises to help pay the goods first. The goods are placed in a third-party warehouse. After a certain period of time, the traders will pay a certain amount. Commission or interest to repay the funds and get back the cargo. If the steel price decline does not change, the short-term estimate of this type of model is not an isolated case.
For the reason for the collapse of black commodities, an iron ore market analyst told reporters that after the steel supply was sufficient, downstream demand failed to improve, steel mills accumulated inventory and profits were compressed, and steel mills were obviously bearish. For the expected short-selling, the steel mill will take the lead in compressing the stock of raw materials, and the direct purchase of iron ore is not active. "In addition to the current inventory of 130 million tons, it is at the peak of history, corresponding to the relatively low operating rate of blast furnaces, and the expected demand is pessimistic."
The latest March data released by the China Iron and Steel Association shows that iron ore prices have fallen due to expected declines, high iron ore port inventory and continued upward supply of external mines. In the later period, the iron ore market supply has not changed. The iron ore price has limited room for growth, and will be in a volatile operation in the later stage.
The sharp drop in iron ore prices also confirms the shift in the logic of reinflation trading. On April 7, the main iron ore contract closed down 6.99%, the biggest one-day drop in more than a year. Hong Wei, the managing director and chief strategist of Bank of Communications International, clearly stated that the price of iron ore has fallen by more than 20% in the past month. It has entered the bear market and supported the bull market in the futures market. Ebb tide.
Zhou Hao, a senior economist at the German commercial bank, recently wrote that if iron ore can reflect the heat of the Chinese market to some extent, then the recent sharp decline in the price of minerals seems to indicate that there are certain problem.